HAQUE'S TALKING

Priority of Politics and Policy Planning

Monday, December 28, 2009

TWO YEARS (009-2010) UNDER LENS; VIEWING THROUGH BINOCULAR AND MICROSCOPE


T
hey have already been replaced, the old one is thrown away or going to be used as a book’s cover and a new one is twinkling in the old place. Your desk or table has got a new one; your room-wall has also welcomed another one. Are they still unclear to you about whom there has been given the above description? Remember the time when you were standing in front of them and turning over the pages one after another with an investigating mood concerning the pictures or paintings portrayed on them. Oh yes, now you got the point- they are the calendars! They are the must who indicate the arrival of a new year with great expectation and, in the same time, focus the departure of an old year. But is that all? The pages we through away after the passing of the year are full with so many events of happiness, pleasure and contentment in one side and grief, gloom and melancholy on the other that they can’t be considered only collection of pages with list of dates. Some of those events shake hearts of mass and bring people together from different places in a single stage. On the reverse side of the coin there are also some other happenings that make people divided and push them to different opinions. The accounts are also diversified in various zones i.e. economic, political, and social and so on. The new calendars are also full with uncertainties, dangers, opportunities and such other facts of which some can be forecast and some are mysterious from any point of view. Standing on the marginal line between 2009 and 2010, if we take to calendars in two hands, one in left hand as it is left out and another in right hand as this one is for right now, we can play the role of historians and parrots.

To click on the folder having the events of 2009 will result a series of sub folders or files with description of so many occurrences that it is impossible for any one to asses or recall them all in a short while because, in reality, a single second is nothing but a combination of hundred thousands of events. For avoiding this lengthy upsetting phenomenon there is going to be screened merely short listed events those have traumatized the world tremendously. In picking up events there has been accepted a tight filtration process where politics got the first and foremost precedence. But with which event can it be started? Oh no, there is no chance of confusion! There is the topic of Middle East and you know Middle East is really in the middle (centre) of any discussion. The one sided Gaza strip assault by Israel, the Middle East version of the USA, on the Palestinian, the scapegoat of western brutal policy, and its after math is one of the heart tearing events in the chronicle of the year. This attack made mistrust between Hamas, the democratically elected government of Gaza strip, and Palestine authority led by Mahmud Abbas and this was the first time when Hamas pointed its finger to Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) for assisting Israel against Hamas. This molest, however, included every type of inhuman activities from using white phosphorus bomb to human-shield including the use of all sorts of ultramodern conventional weapons by navy, army and air force. Through the assail fifty Hamas activists were killed and more than thirteen hundred unarmed people were roughly slaughtered with an unimaginable loss of twenty thousand habitats, one thousand and five hundred mills, factories, workshops, countless mosques and even UN driven schools. Another important scenario was the USA’s u-tern changing stand. Prior to that attack all the affairs related to Middle East were tightly controlled, visualized, organized and even materialized under a full attachment of the USA’s attitude, willing, permission and signal. This is the first time when Israel could manage the USA to resettle the decision in UN and the full control of the USA was shifted to Israel. For this reason the total phenomenon will change, in near future, not only dramatically but also drastically as Israel has no intention to pay any heed towards international law, customs and rituals. After the Gaza assail some of the international humanitarian and human rights institutions made a step to excavate the abusing of human rights law and humanitarian customs in the event. They pay the same game as Israelis are the main guilt so Palestinian should be charged with! What about the on going peace endeavor taken by Obama regarding Middle East? In the previous year the swiftness of the process showed us that any treaty in supporting Palestine is never possible with Israel. It always tries to get one-sided sacrifice, by Palestine, and one-sided gaining, by her. So if Obama does not suit with this notion Israel will take a go slow policy for which no treaty is going to be signed in next coming years. But be sure as it is a new year there will be another assail on Palestine from Israel at any blame.

Economic depression is considered, no matter who you are, to be the most influencing catalyst of the year as many of the world’s giant financial institutions i.e. Lehman Brothers, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, JPMorgan Chase and so on were either announced bankrupted or became bound to cut their employee list though government took bail out scheme by allotting million dollars budget. The depression started from mortgage sector and within in an incredible short while it engulfs the total economic grassland of the whole world. This depression, according to many, is nothing but the result of the corporate criminalization created hopefully by the top most officials of some limited high profile companies. This happened because the US government took away interference from the market completely and competitors did not pay any heed to general rules of market. No matter, however, whoever are the culprits, the main scapegoats of the crisis were surly the mass people who, from any point of view, are never blameworthy but to recompense. In the ending months of the year the crisis was on the healing point and economies were getting normalizing. But the rate of normalization suggests a long way to go for the process to get a full swing.

Sorry and surrender for Osama and Obama respectively as one became zero and another appeared hero. The once talk-of-the-world Osama, add Bin Laden as suffix, now has became a shadow tape recorder through which he, after a regular interval, only can show his survival not any real roar. The Osama issue is now only limited in expressing uncertainty where he may bury him either in Pakistan or in Afghanistan. Contrary to this Obama, add Barrak Hossain as antecedent, is now a fantasy figure round the globe. He may be deemed as the first President who is elected globally in the history of the United States of America. His charismatic slogan Change echoed from the blue oceans to white permafrost, gray desert to green woodland and where not. This ensued because people under Bush administration the world experienced unimaginable bitter conditions, incredible humiliation of human dignity. The blood shedding occurred in different parts of world in such a gigantic degree that only Change was the way to escape. But how much Change will or can Obama bring? The expectation rose up when Nobel committee announced his name as peace prize winner of the year 2009. Before judging the relevance of his assortment as a Nobel laureate, though there is much room for criticism, we can wait for coming days. His over ambitious prospect for nuclear free world, a successful deal with Russia on the issue of missile deployment in Europe are really hopeful. Contrary to this sending new troops in Afghanistan, unethical play with Pakistan, unjust nuclear deal with India and failure to reach a well accepted treaty regarding environment, the burning issue of today’s world, in Copenhagen are some of issues that create negative images over his name and fame. What can we expect from Obama in the year 2010? Before going to expectation you must have to consider Obama as a president of the USA. He is not a person but personnel of the USA’s government. He is to uphold the US interest first and then the question of human expectation. Will you admit any decision by you head of the state hampering your national interest to satisfy international community? If no why American will let it? So if American interest needs to be more drastically in Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, North Korea and Pakistan what Obama can do? He only can assure that information is not to be manipulated for making it just an invasion on another state as Bush did and only can have an opening of discussion before deploying missile. Under his presidency there may be no more direct intrusion against any new country even on Iran but don’t forget about nonmilitary instrument i.e. UN’s embargo, media pressure etc. In such a condition there may be created proxy war created by other but fueled and patronized by the USA in full scale. Iran has to rethink about it regarding nuclear issue under Obama’s administration. Oh no just allot Obama more time to proof his promise for a peaceful world though he uttered roughly in the stage of Nobel peace prize receiving period. Without this allotting time and waiting for future what can we do?

The previous year 2009 was a mixture of romance and horror for the states remaining black list of the USA such as North Korea, Iran and Myanmar. From the real context North Korea was on the zero point, neither in trouble nor in tranquility and next one, Iran, was on the left side continuously under threat and sanction and Myanmar, the last one, was on the right side receiving a hidden blessing from the western power though after an acid test of rivalry within state. For North Korea the nuclear deal or six party talks were only a show down. It is clear to the USA that North Korea is never a direct threat against it and consuming time in this issue is nothing but waste of money and muscle. She only wants to focus North Korea as a nuclear black sheep for justifying her presence in the Korean peninsula and Japan. To do so she is just creating a bad name for North Korea and making rehearsal of talking. But Iran got no sympathy, so she is kept on the left side, from the west even she was on the bank of disorder, political turmoil and distress fashioned calculatedly by the western power through hidden hand. This course of making Iran politically unstable will continue in near future and setting up a puppet government in Iran is the main target of the West as a substitute of war. So Iran in next days will be a place where the opposition will try to make a nonissue as issue and will attract the western media coverage. And obviously Obama will try to hunt the snake, here Iran, without breaking the stick, the blame of war. The more days will go the more the political scenario will get stalemate situation in Iran. Regarding Myanmar, the blessed by the west, the coming days will be easier. Now the question of democracy is only on the screen and the reality is to detach Myanmar from the grasp of China. The West is now confirm that more pressure on Myanmar government will make her more dependent on China and in price of this Chinese support the West will drop the minimum interest from her. So in 2010 Myanmar government may enjoy less pressure from the Western alliance and the Nobel Prize winner Suchi may go to face more hardship. In the middle of 2009 this became luminous when an American was released by the autocratic military government in exchange of Suchi’s extended imprisonment. This is the obvious turning of the USA regarding Myanmar and this process was also observed in case of North Korea when tow of the Americans were arrested and were going to be imprisoned. Three nations Iran, North Korea and Myanmar are going to be treated different ways based on different circumstances.

The condition of other three nations namely Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan; categorized in same class as all of them were and still are the home ground of war on terror, also remains in three different positions. Iraq is now in right side as the puppet government is completely on the side of West and all of the petro resources are under full control of Anglo-American companies. The withdrawal of international army from Baghdad has a profound impact and the Iraqi government showed its capacity to rule them without the assistance of American troops. But the complete withdrawal of American troops is simply an unimaginable affair as USA’s interest in this region is long-term. So, to justify American presence in Iraq in the coming days there may be intensified, by a hidden hand and you know who this hand is, the terrorist attack. Moreover there may be created a blame game situation between Iran and Iraq to engage each against other. In this regard the Shia-Sunni division may be widening by that invisible but clear playmaker. Afghanistan, the real destination of war on terror in 2009, is in the zero point that means it remained neither good nor bad considering the previous years of sufferings. Here the election proved that Western powers are interested to create an unsteady government that can not make any bargain against them. To do so they weakened Hamid Karzia by blaming him about stealing vote and created Abdullah Abdullah as an alternative telephone number of Karzai. So if Karzai is not full filling their demand the second choice is available. Afghanistan got the most priority of Obama government and even before election he was promising the shift of war zone from Middle East to Asia. So, more troops were approached in Afghanistan in 2009 by Obama government. The West is careful about China, Russia, India, Pakistan and Iran. Afghanistan is a country with whom all those countries have boundary. So presence in Afghanistan is an urgent for them. But in the same time they don’t want to wage war as they are shaken with economic depression and tired with lengthiness of war. Moreover they may on the verge of another war front either in Pakistan, to grasp nuclear weapons or Iran, to halt from attaining nuclear weapons. Standing on this stone like reality they, in next years, may go to a compromising attitude. To do so they first want to create alternative choices so that they can have enjoyed bargaining power with different groups to serve their interest. In this regard the accused Taliban may be brought to the table of negotiation in the name of good Taliban. This division of good Taliban and bad Taliban may open another front of war in Pakistan titling her as the home ground of bad Taliban. So Pakistan is now on the left side of the situation. For destroying or capturing nuclear weapons of Pakistan the western powers are now waiting with different cages and traps. Though last year Pakistan got democratic track, the future is gray as western powers think military will serve their interest more. Pakistan has to face some other more challenges people from Afghan border already considering the military and government as their enemies. If another military coup happens in near future it will create more mistrust between military and people which in return will pave the way of being her a failure state. The terrorist attack in Pakistan is signaling such a deteriorating situation for Pakistan.

India with tight hand of economic depression and black stigma of Mumbai occurrence has passed a successful year in 2009. The great, grand and glorious victory of Congress with a new charismatic leadership of Rahul has made the government more decisive and stable to attain national interest. A great deal in nuclear sector with the USA has made her more confident. In such a reality India is now an unchallenged regional power. The coming year may open new doors of opportunities and occasions but any repression on sovereign seekers, more expansion in military sector will push her to grave yard. Her neighbor Sri Lanka gained a total victory over Tamils which in next days may create both chances and challenges. A chance as it has made the country stable and created opportunity to deploy her total resources for economic development. Challenges as the country is now on the necessity of integrating the Tamil and a proper rehabilitation of the rebellions. If it fails to face that challenges the coming up of another Tamil rebellion is a must in future.

Oh yes! Now it is the turn for Bangladesh. In the previous year Bangladesh met a great change that was return to democracy. But some other events such as BDR mutiny, failure of the government to curb price hike made her more vulnerable. The BDR massacre made mistrust between army and BDR which in return causes insecurity for her independence. Some other issues like withdrawal of military from Chittagong Hill Tracts, handing over Indian rebellions to India have made a u-turn between the past and present government. But such a shift in foreign policy may create a big dilemma for future as China feels uneasiness. Failure of world leaders to reach to a treaty about environmental degradation is another red-signal for Bangladesh. In this regard, in Copenhagen, Bangladesh takes a wrong policy as it has emphasized on compensation against reduction of carbon emission. Why is Bangladesh hankering after for compensation money? It is clear that any of the compensation money will open ways of conditions from the donors. It is, moreover, a lengthy process to get any such fund. In the name of compensation money they will interfere in any of the development projects and perhaps they will fund never the government but the NGO’s related to the environmental activities. How can Bangladesh be benefited by such a compensation project? So Bangladesh has to give emphasize on reducing the amount of carbon emission and that should made obligatory for developed nations. In this regard it is to be mentioned that reaching to a well acknowledged treaty, beneficial for developing countries, is a never happening issue. Since all the developed countries and even some developing countries i.e. India, Brazil and China are on the common track to halt to compose a compulsory treaty, all the rest must have to articulate a combined attempt to draft the treaty. If, without doing this, the developing countries make initiative to get compensation money, it will make them more divided on the question of distribution of the money.

Some other scattered events, that shook the world in 2009, are the death of pop emperor Micheal Jackson, emergence of swine flue in an epidemic scale, emergence and decline of Maoist government in Nepal and so on. How many of events are waiting for the New Year! We are really looking forward to meeting for new days with new dreams. The new sun with new songs!

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