HAQUE'S TALKING

Priority of Politics and Policy Planning

Monday, February 2, 2009

Chinese economic rising; a shift from ideology to re-shift towards power struggle


“The disguised economy” perhaps would be the genuine naming of the Chinese economy as it is misread a socialist one from ideological perspective. The real fact is if you want to furnish Chinese economy with the socialist skin, you will not only be aggravated but, at the same time, will be dazed seeing that it has already surpassed the extreme phase of capitalist economy. This dissocialist process in Chinese economic turf was started in 1978 when China’s domestic economy experienced wrenching change. After raising prices for farm products dramatically in 1979, China converted its socialist communes to family farming in the early 1980s, when it also created banks and replaced government budgetary financing for enterprises with bank loans. In the latter 1980s, China shifted operational control of factories from Communist Party secretaries to factory managers, who were given incentives to make money. Thus, by gradual repositioning, it finally hammered the last nail on the coffin of the socialist economic system and instituted keeping the new wine of capitalist system under the old brand of socialism.

But this disguise musky nature and the shifting process of Chinese economy never come to the round table discussion of the economists, specialists, politicians, social workers and even the critiques of the China’s socio-political-economic point of views though the economy itself is well talked from different angles i.e. the question of morality, major challenges such as environmental pollution, inflation, future low paid labor crisis, economic crisis in the world, energy crisis, challenge for or from the USA, Brazil and India etc. Other much talked points regarding the rapid expansion of Chinese economy are its impact on world’s politics, capability and probability of her power expansion, opening new political fronts in south Asia, Africa along with such other places obviously including Latin America. We will also, in the next coming lines, turn one after another all unturned stones of the Chinese economic terrace.

First of all we can click the mouse on the folder carrying the files and documents regarding Chinese economic expansion. If you do so your eye ball may come out of your eye pit after seeing the rate of her economic expansion. Since 1990s China is successfully maintaining a double digit GDP whenever most of the developed countries assume it a kismet to assure the rate in between 3-5 percent and thus her growth rate since 1990 has well outstripped the twentieth-century growth records of Japan other East Asian “miracle” economies like South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore. Today China is in the longest sustained period of rapid expansion since reforms began. China’s integration into the international community also goes far beyond what Japan or South Korea ever attempted at this stage of their development and obviously her embrace of the World Trade Organization and foreign direct investment is unprecedented and contributes importantly to its growth success.

Though the rotation of the wheel of economic development of China is intact till today, the total process is going under a u-tern shift from affirmative to interrogative. Many of the specialists in the field of economics are arguing that this swift development process may slow down because of some visible and unavoidable reasons. The indiscriminative exploitation of natural resources and unwise treatment with pollutant particles have caused a severe environmental mayhem what may within the shortest possible time cause limitless troubles from natural disasters to epidemic spread of diseases. More over the quick industrialization has opened immense bargaining opportunities for the able employment seekers and at the same time has increased the every day expenses and together these two facts have made the wages higher which, in return, may press the trigger against flow of foreign investment. The current world wide economic crisis is adding salt to the injury. People from different countries, where China has a big share of export, have started to save money and shorten the rate of consumption as a result shoe, motor car and some other markets are now under great depression. Melamine scandal in dairy milk industry, animal food is considered as bolt from the blue and has already inserted a big question mark about the morality of China in business as some allege that China engages in unfair commercial practices, such as policies affecting exchange rate levels, intellectual property rights, subsidies, and accumulation of foreign exchange reserves etc. All these issues may become as catalyst for slowing down the GDP rate though some say China has its own big population to be interpreted as market and consumers which may deter the crisis. Who knows what the decision of time is!

No matter it expands or abbreviates critics are always busy in calculating the after math of becoming China as economic power with exact reference of time. Many suggest after pressing the buttons of calculator for a long while that China’s total GDP will become larger than that of the U.S. sometime between 2035 and 2040. After that, China’s GDP will likely become twice that of the U.S. by sometime in the 2060s. In this connection they also remind that this is not only an economic challenge towards USA from China as head always follows the ears and economic supremacy opens the doorway of political as well as military power. The symptoms of Chinese power and hegemony expansion are clear in different regions with special reference of Africa, South Asia and a slight touch in Latin America. China has already started expanding its investment in energy sector in various African countries along with a hand some number of investment-economic aid oriented projects in some developing countries. A tight military tie with different countries in various fields and levels are also a luminous indication of China’s big military ambition. The feeling of Middle Kingdom, problem of territorial integrity regarding Tibet, Taiwan and so on and USA’s aggressive policy of preemption, making sea boundary safe, assurance of regional stability are the main military headache of China. To acquire all those needs China is triggering her shoot towards space technology whenever navy is also getting a remarkable importance. All these activities seek a close investment which is to be assured by the current economic rising. When it is done, with such a big population, China obviously can craft an everlasting confront towards unipolar world order which is tilted towards America. At least the ill feeling of India and Japan regarding China’s emergence may insist America to interfere in the region which in the long run will open a new form of impasse like situation between China and America.

The rapid rising of China as an economic giant has also another aspect. With her low paid labor China is becoming more and more business counter for Japan, USA, European countries and even India and some other developing countries in spite of their having cheap labor. Chines car, electronic parts and IT to agriculture based industries can provide products in so low price that local entrepreneur of different countries are on the brink of ruin. More over China’s new will to reshape the G8 to G9 has put Japan aside on the table. Thus the rising of China as a commercial magnet has multidimensional effects from soft issues like social, cultural to hard issues such as economic, political, security and strategic fields and so on. But all these will certainly depend on the capability of Chinese leaders how much they can prolong the economic uprising with the best use of every single opportunity. Who knows how it will go!

1 Comments:

  • At July 4, 2009 at 11:51 AM , Blogger ASADUL HAQUE said...

    It really is very difficult to realize the meaning of the title of the article. Moreover there is another problem in the article to make a conclusion about the true economic condition of China. It is however an attempt without fruit to gause the economic situation of Chainal.

     

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